Retirement withdrawals
Retirement withdrawals, tested two ways.
Test one inflation-adjusted withdrawal plan with steady assumptions and rolling historical sequences—without treating either as a forecast.
Assumptions used
Set one withdrawal plan, then view it through steady assumptions or every historical window that fits the selected horizon. All values and bounds are visible here.
Projection mode
Steady assumptions show one deterministic path. Rolling history shows the same withdrawals across overlapping historical sequences.
Portfolio value immediately before the first scheduled withdrawal.
Allowed range: 0 to 100000000.
First-year withdrawal entry
Enter the first withdrawal as a percentage of the starting portfolio or as a dollar amount.
Applied once to the starting portfolio; later dollar withdrawals grow with inflation.
Allowed range: 0 to 20 %.
Number of complete annual withdrawals to test.
Used by rolling history. The steady mode instead applies the total portfolio return entered below.
Deducted once each year from the balance after that year's return.
Allowed range: 0 to 5 %.
Constant nominal return applied after each beginning-of-year withdrawal.
Allowed range: -100 to 50 %.
Each later withdrawal grows by this constant annual rate.
Allowed range: -10 to 20 %.
- Mode
- Steady assumptions
- Starting portfolio
- $1,000,000
- First withdrawal
- $40,000 (4%)
- Allocation
- 60% stocks / 40% bonds
- Horizon
- 30 years
- Annual fee
- 0.2%
- Return source
- 5% nominal each year
- Withdrawal inflation
- 2.5% each year
Positive result
Deterministic ending value
$459,667
After 30 scheduled beginning-of-year withdrawals, returns, and fees.
Positive result
Withdrawal schedule
Completed
Every scheduled withdrawal was completed under the steady assumptions.
Positive result
First-year withdrawal
$40,000
The selected rate or dollar entry, taken before first-year growth.
Positive result
Total modeled fees
$53,301
Sum of post-return annual fees deducted over the modeled path.
Annual timing used everywhereWithdraw at the beginning of the year. If the withdrawal exceeds the opening balance, the path fails. Otherwise apply the year's return, deduct the fee from the post-return balance, and use that year's inflation to set the next withdrawal.
Steady-assumption trajectory
One path holds the selected return and inflation rates constant. The table uses the same annual balances, withdrawals, returns, and fees as the visual.
| Projection year | Opening balance | Scheduled withdrawal | Nominal return | Fee deducted | Ending balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1,000,000 | $40,000 | 5% | $2,016 | $1,005,984 |
| Year 2 | $1,005,984 | $41,000 | 5% | $2,026 | $1,011,207 |
| Year 3 | $1,011,207 | $42,025 | 5% | $2,035 | $1,015,606 |
| Year 4 | $1,015,606 | $43,076 | 5% | $2,042 | $1,019,114 |
| Year 5 | $1,019,114 | $44,153 | 5% | $2,047 | $1,021,662 |
| Year 6 | $1,021,662 | $45,256 | 5% | $2,050 | $1,023,176 |
| Year 7 | $1,023,176 | $46,388 | 5% | $2,051 | $1,023,576 |
| Year 8 | $1,023,576 | $47,547 | 5% | $2,050 | $1,022,781 |
| Year 9 | $1,022,781 | $48,736 | 5% | $2,045 | $1,020,701 |
| Year 10 | $1,020,701 | $49,955 | 5% | $2,039 | $1,017,245 |
| Year 11 | $1,017,245 | $51,203 | 5% | $2,029 | $1,012,315 |
| Year 12 | $1,012,315 | $52,483 | 5% | $2,016 | $1,005,808 |
| Year 13 | $1,005,808 | $53,796 | 5% | $1,999 | $997,614 |
| Year 14 | $997,614 | $55,140 | 5% | $1,979 | $987,618 |
| Year 15 | $987,618 | $56,519 | 5% | $1,955 | $975,698 |
| Year 16 | $975,698 | $57,932 | 5% | $1,927 | $961,728 |
| Year 17 | $961,728 | $59,380 | 5% | $1,895 | $945,570 |
| Year 18 | $945,570 | $60,865 | 5% | $1,858 | $927,082 |
| Year 19 | $927,082 | $62,386 | 5% | $1,816 | $906,115 |
| Year 20 | $906,115 | $63,946 | 5% | $1,769 | $882,509 |
| Year 21 | $882,509 | $65,545 | 5% | $1,716 | $856,097 |
| Year 22 | $856,097 | $67,183 | 5% | $1,657 | $826,702 |
| Year 23 | $826,702 | $68,863 | 5% | $1,591 | $794,140 |
| Year 24 | $794,140 | $70,584 | 5% | $1,519 | $758,214 |
| Year 25 | $758,214 | $72,349 | 5% | $1,440 | $718,718 |
| Year 26 | $718,718 | $74,158 | 5% | $1,354 | $675,435 |
| Year 27 | $675,435 | $76,012 | 5% | $1,259 | $628,135 |
| Year 28 | $628,135 | $77,912 | 5% | $1,155 | $576,579 |
| Year 29 | $576,579 | $79,860 | 5% | $1,043 | $520,512 |
| Year 30 | $520,512 | $81,856 | 5% | $921 | $459,667 |
What this can—and cannot—show
A 4% entry schedules $40,000 in year one for the current starting portfolio, then raises the dollar withdrawal with inflation. It is a convention for an illustration, not a recommendation that 4% is safe for every person.
Early losses can be especially damaging when withdrawals are occurring because less money remains to participate in later recoveries. The rolling historical mode changes the order and size of observed returns while keeping your selected plan consistent.
The sample is one U.S. market history with annually rebalanced S&P 500 and 10-year Treasury returns. It assumes those broad markets remain investable, uses overlapping windows, and cannot represent every security, tax, cost, regime, or future market path.
Educational illustration only. Deterministic paths and historical backtests are not forecasts, probability estimates, guarantees, or individualized recommendations.
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Questions this model answers
What does a 4% withdrawal rate mean here?
It means the first scheduled withdrawal equals 4% of the starting portfolio. Later scheduled withdrawals rise with the selected deterministic inflation rate or each preceding historical year's supplied inflation observation.
What counts as historical success?
A rolling period succeeds only when every scheduled beginning-of-year withdrawal can be completed without exceeding the portfolio balance then available. Ending at zero after the final scheduled withdrawal still meets that exact definition.
Why can the same average return produce different outcomes?
Withdrawals make the order of returns matter. Weak returns early in retirement remove capital before later recoveries can compound, which is commonly called sequence-of-returns risk.
Is a historical success rate a forecast?
No. It summarizes overlapping periods in one U.S. historical dataset. It is not a probability, prediction, guarantee, or individualized recommendation.